Sim ...

Ela diz claramente:

It would not be made out of gold.

Então ela escolheu claramente a pessoa errada de propósito.

Se olharmos para o roteiro e a novelização oficial do filme (ela própria baseada no roteiro), podemos ver que Elsa claramente o preparou para falhar .

DONOVAN: I'm not a historian. I have no idea what it looks like. Which one is it?

ELSA: Let me choose.

DONOVAN: Thank you, Doctor.

Elsa and Indy exchange looks. He thinks he is seeing her in her true colors.

Elsa chooses a cup -- a solid gold, emerald encrusted goblet.

Donovan instantly takes it from her.

DONOVAN: Oh, yes. It's more beautiful than I'd ever imagined. This certainly is the cup of the King of Kings.

_{^{"INDIANA JONES AND THE LAST CRUSADE" Screenplay by Jeffrey Boam}}

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Elsa removed her hat and carefully picked up a shiny cup encrusted with sparkling colored stones. Donovan instantly grabbed it from her and held it up to the light. “Oh, yes. It’s more beautiful than I had ever imagined. And it’s mine.”

Indy expected Elsa to protest, but she remained silent. The knight’s face was implacable, revealing nothing.

_{^{Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade: Official Novelisation}}

Desde que já sabemos que ela é uma competente estudiosa do Graal, seu erro foi imperdoável.